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When there is blood in the water, it is only natural that dorsal fins swirl around excitedly. Now that America’s housing market is ailing, predators have their sights on the country’s credit-card market. Analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that credit-card losses could reach $99 billion if contagion spreads from subprime mortgages to other forms of consumer credit. Signs of strain are clearly visible. There are rises in both the charge-off and delinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectable or more than 30 days late respectively. HSBC announced last month that it had taken a $1.4 billion charge in its American consumer-finance business, partly because of weakness among card borrowers.

It is too early to panic, though. Charge-offs and delinquencies are still low. According to Moody’s, a rating agency, the third-quarter delinquency rate of 3.89% was almost a full percentage point below the historical average. The deterioration in rates can be partly explained by technical factors. A change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were getting worse.

The industry also reports solid payment rates, which show how much of their debt consumers pay off each month. And confidence in credit-card asset-backed securities is pretty firm despite paralysis in other corners of structured finance. Dennis Moroney of TowerGroup, a research firm, predicts that issuance volumes for 2007 will end up being 25% higher than last year.

Direct channels of infection between the subprime-mortgage crisis and the credit-card market certainly exist: consumers are likelier to load up on credit-card debt now that home-equity loans are drying up. But card issuers look at cash flow rather than asset values, so falling house prices do not necessarily trigger a change in borrowers’ creditworthiness. They may even work to issuers’ advantage. The incentives for consumers to keep paying the mortgage decrease if properties are worth less than the value of the loan; card debt rises higher up the list of repayment priorities as a result.

Card issuers are also able to respond much more swiftly and flexibly to stormier conditions than mortgage lenders are, by changing interest rates or altering credit limits. That should in theory reduce the risk of a rapid repricing of assets. "We are not going to wake up one day and totally revalue the loans," says Gary Perlin, Capital One’s chief financial officer.

If a sudden subprime-style meltdown in the credit-card market is improbable, the risks of a sustained downturn are much more real. If lower house prices and a contraction in credit push America into recession, the industry will undoubtedly face a grimmer future. Keep watching for those dorsal fins.

1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to _____.

[A] make people alert to the potential danger

[B] attract the readers’ attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon

[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case

[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers

2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.

[A] the deterioration of the subprime mortgage

[B] the inadequate ability of card borrowers

[C] the influence of the technical factors

[D] the change in relevant laws

3. According to the third paragraph, the number of bankruptcy fillings would be rising again because_____.

[A] there is a change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws

[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low

[C] the influence of the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested

[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse

4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influnces the credit-card market in that_____.

[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers’ creditworthiness

[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt

[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers’ incectives to repay the card debt

[D] the falling house prices makes the card debt rising higher

5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by_____.

[A] a gradual downward tendency

[B] a rapid collapse

[C] a sustained trend of lowering price

[D] the accumulation of economic recession

文章剖析：

这篇文章分析了美国次级抵押贷款危机可能影响到的信用卡市场。第一段指出信用卡市场已经出现疲软迹象;第二段、第三段通过分析表示信用卡市场危机并未确定，不需要过于恐慌;第四段指出次级抵押危机与信用卡市场之间的传染渠道;第五段指出信用卡规避风险的优势;第六段指出信用卡市场更趋于经历持续低迷的情况。

词汇注释：

dorsal fin n.[动物]背鳍

ailing adj. 景况不佳的，生病的

contagion n.传染, 传染病, 蔓延

charge-off n. 损耗

delinquency n. 逾期债款

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