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What will the world be like in fifty years?
This week some top scientists, including Nobel Prize winners, gave their vision of how the world will look in 2056,fron gas-powered cars to extraordinary health advances, John Ingham reports on what the world's finest minds believe our futures will be.
For those of us lucky enough to live that long,2056 will be a world of almost perpetual youth, where obesity is a remote memory and robots become our companions.
We will be rubbing shoulders with aliens and colonizing outer space. Better still, our descendants might at last live in a world at peace with itself.
The prediction is that we will have found a source of inexbaustible, safe, green energy, and that science will have killed off religion. If they are right we will have removed two of the main causes of war-our dependence on oil and religious prejudice.
Will we really, as today's scientists claim, be able to live for ever or at least cheat the ageing process so that the average person lives to 150?
Of course, all these predictions come with a scientific health warning. Harvard professor Steven Pinker says: “This is an invitation to look foolish, as with the predictions of domed cities and nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners that were made 50 year ago.”
Living longer
Anthony Atala, director of the Wake Forest Institute in North Carolina, belives failing organs will be repaired by injecting cells into the body. They will naturally to straight to the injury and help heal it. A system of injections without needles could also slow the ageing process by using the same process to “tune” cells.
Bruce Lahn, professor of human genetics at the University of Chicago, anticipates the ability to produce“unlimited supplies” of transplantable human organs without the needed a new organ, such as kidney, the surgeon would contact a commercial organ producer, give him the patient's immuno-logical profile and would then be sent a kidney with the correct tissue type.
These organs would be entirely composed of human cells, grown by introducing them into animal hosts, and alloweing them to deveoop into and organ in place of the animal's own. But Prof. Lahn believes that farmed brains would be “off limits”.He says: “Very few people would want to have their brains replaced by someone else's and we probably don't want to put a human brain ing an animal body.”
Richard Miller, a professor at the University of Michigan, thinks scientist could develop“an thentic anti-ageing drugs” by working out how cells in larger animals such as whales and human resist many forms of injuries. He says:“It's is now routine, in laboratory mammals, to extend lifespan by about 40%. Turning on the same protective systems in people should, by 2056, create the first class of 100-year-olds who are as vigorous and productive as today's people in their 60s”
Aliens
Conlin Pillinger ,professor of planerary sciences at the Open University,says:“I fancy that at least we will be able to show that life didi start to evolve on Mars well as Earth.”Within 50years he hopes scientists will prove that alien life came here in Martian meteorites(陨石).
Chris McKay,a planetary scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center.believes that in 50 years we may find evidence of alien life in ancient permanent forst of Mars or on other planers.
He adds:“There is even a chance we will find alien life forms here on Earth.It mightbe as different as English is to Chinese.
Priceton professor Freeman Dyson thinks it “likely” that life form outer space will be discovered defore 2056 because the tools for finding it, such as optical and radio detection and data processing,are improving.
He ays:“As soon as the first evidence is found,we will know what to look for and additional discoveries are likely to follow quickly.Such discoveries are likely to have revolutionary consequences for biology, astronomy and philosophy. They may change the way we look at ourselves and our place in the universe.
Colonies in space
Richard Gottprofessor of astrophysics at Princeton,hopes man will set up a self-sufficient colony on Mars,which would be a “life insurance policy against whatever catastrophes,natural or otherwise,might occur on Earth.
“The real space race is whether we will colonise off Earth on to other worlds before money for the space programme runs out.”
Spinal injuries
Ellen Heber-Katz,a professor at the Wistar Institude in Philadelphia,foresees cures for inijuries causing paralysis such as the one that afflicated Superman star Christopher Reeve.
She says:“I believe that the day is not far off when we will be able to profescribe drugs that cause severes(断裂的) spinal cords to heal,hearts to regenerate and lost limbs to regrow.
“People will come to expect that injured or diseased organs are meant to be repaired from within,inmuch the same way that we fix an appliance or automobile:by replancing the damaged part with a manufacturer-certified new part.”She predict that within 5 to 10 years fingers and toes will be regrown and limbs will start to be regrown a few years later. Reparies to the nervous system will start with optic nerves and,in time,the spinal cord.“Within 50years whole body replacement will be routine,”Prof.Heber-Katz adds.
Obesity
Sydney Brenner,senior distinguished fellow of the Crick-Jacobs Center in California,won the 2002 Noblel Prize for Medicine and says that if there is a global disaster some humans will survive-and evolition will favour small people with bodies large enough to support the required amount of brain power.“Obesity,”he says.“will have been solved.”
Robots