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托福阅读材料：剑桥教授认为2014将成人类转折
Dramatic event that will determine the course of the 21st century will take place in 2014, according to a Cambridge University academic.
In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism
Prof Nicholas Boyle claims that events of the fateful year will decide whether the world enjoys peace and prosperity over the coming decades or suffers war and poverty.
He believes financial turmoil could be the trigger for the crisis, and that the reactions of American leaders will be crucial to its outcome. He also thinks new global organisations will be key to securing stability rather than nation-states.
Prof Boyle argues that 2014 will be important because previous five centuries have also hinged on events that took place in the middle of their second decade.
In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism.
A century later 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and decades of religious conflict in Western Europe, which ended with the establishment of the Hanoverians in 1715.
The enlightened Congress of Vienna took place in 1815 following the defeat of Napoleon, heralding a century of relative stability across Europe.
But in 1914 the First World War broke out, a catastrophic conflict that would claim millions of lives and set the tone for international discord throughout the 21st century.
Prof Boyle, whose book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis is published on Thursday, said: "The character of a century becomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different?"
"Partly the timing has to do with the way we divide our understanding of human life and human history."
"If a century is going to have a character it is going to become apparent by the time it is approaching 20 years old, the same is true of human beings."
"Another factor is the sequence of generations. By about two decades in the generation that was really dominant in the last phase of the previous century has had its day."
"The future is beginning to be defined by their children who will only have lived in or have memories of the new century."
Professor Boyle predicted recent economic collapse could herald the start of a wider breakdown in international relations.
The USA will become the key player in a series of make-or-break decisions and either condemn us to a century of violence and poverty, or usher in a new age of global co-operation.
But he cautioned the peaceful alternative is only possible if the world realises the age of individual nation states is over and an effective system of global governance is introduced.
Flashpoints of world politics such as climate change and the rise of China and India, as well as the global credit crisis, will need international co-operation to be resolved.
Professor Boyle said: "2007 started off colossal economic change which has still got a long way to go."
"Big economic changes lead to big political changes and we have not seen them yet."
"My thesis is that we have got another crisis to come, and you can already see that in the questions being raised over the debts of nations rather than private credit debts."
"One thing that has not changed is the colossus that is the American military which means the USA has to be a key player in any major political shift."
"We are going to see disparity in America's perception of its declining economic significance and continuing military and political absolute power."
"Everything, in the end, may depend on whether America can react more imaginatively to that decline than Britain was able to do in the years before 1914."
"It is a profoundly hopeful sign that we begin the 21st century with very many more international and intergovernmental organisations than we had at the start of the 20th."
Professor Boyle stressed it is a global network of global organisations and the only partly-acknowledged "Empire" of America that will determine many aspects of our lives in the 21st century.
He added: "The only conceivably peaceful route to that goal is through a continuation of the pax Americana."
"But both the world's understanding of America, and America's understanding of itself, will have to change fundamentally for that goal to be achieved."