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Germany and Greece

德国与希腊

Go if you must

如有必要就退出

Angela Merkel appears to have become moresanguine about a Grexit

安吉拉·默克尔对“希腊退出欧元区”的态度似乎变得更加乐观

Merkel points the way for Samaras

默克尔为希腊总理萨马拉斯指明出路

IF THE Syriza party wins Greece's election on January 25th, most think the power to negotiaterests with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. “A small minority, centred on theconservative leadership of the German government,” says Alexis Tsipras, Syriza's leader, “insists on rehashing old wives' tales and Grexit stories.”

如果希腊左翼联盟在1月25日大选中获胜，多数人认为只有德国总理安吉拉·默克尔才能(与其)进行协商。左翼联盟主席阿列克西斯·齐普拉斯表示“极力拥护德国保守派执政党领导人的极少数党，坚持原来的观点，反复提到‘希腊退出欧元区'的相关事宜。”

So it seemed after German officials leaked to Der Spiegel, a weekly, their assessment thatGrexit would not only be bearable but might even make the euro stronger. Other problemcountries have weathered the crisis (Portugal, Ireland) or are making progress (Spain). The eurozone now has a bail-out fund and a banking union. German banks and insurers have reducedtheir exposure.

德国官员在接受德国《明镜周刊》采访时透露了他们的评估意见，似乎表示：欧元不仅可以承受“希腊退出欧元区”的压力，还可能会增强其自身实力。其他问题比较严重的国家有些平安度过危机(葡萄牙、爱尔兰)，有些不断取得成绩，如西班牙。欧元区目前拥有救市资金与银行联盟。而德国的银行与保险公司已降低其经营风险。

On January 5th Steffen Seibert, Mrs Merkel's spokesman, insisted that German policy had notchanged: it still aimed to hold the euro zone together. Yet all sides are now debating Grexit.Some in Mrs Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) said giving in to Greece wouldencourage other countries, including France, to rebel against spending cuts and supply-sidereforms. Sigmar Gabriel, leader of the Social Democrats, Mrs Merkel's coalition partners, saidGermany must not be “blackmailed”.

1月5日，默克尔总理发言人斯特芬·赛博特坚称德国没有改变政策，仍旨在维护欧元区的统一。然而，德国各党派目前就“希腊退欧”一事争论不止。有些来自默克尔领导的基督教民主联盟的人士认为，对希腊做出让步会助长包括法国在内的其他国家反对削减开支与供方改革的势头。默克尔总理联盟伙伴、德国社会民主党主席西格玛尔·加布里尔表示：德国千万不能被“要挟”。

Other Social Democrats recoiled from this tone. So did the CDU's conservative Bavarian sisterparty. “We should not behave as a schoolmaster” to the Greeks, said Horst Seehofer, theBavarian premier. The whole discussion was “irresponsible”, warned Simone Peter, a leader ofthe Greens. Sahra Wagenknecht, a leader of the ex-communist Left party, which sides withSyriza, accused Mrs Merkel's government of “scare tactics” to influence the Greek election.

社会民主党其他成员则惧怕使用这样的语调。基民联盟姊妹政党、巴伐利亚州的保守党派基督教社会联盟亦是如此。该联盟主席霍斯特·泽霍费尔表示，“我们不应该以校长的姿态”对待希腊人民。绿党领导人西莫尼·皮特警告道：整个讨论都是“不负责任的”。支持左翼联盟的前社会主义左翼党的领导人莎拉·瓦根克内希特谴责默克尔政府采用“恐吓手段”来影响希腊大选的行径。

Carsten Nickel at Teneo Intelligence, a risk consultancy, thinks Mrs Merkel is trying to “send astrong signal toAthens” that aid would still be tied to reforms, but that she will be flexible. Adeal with Mr Tsipras could include lower interest or longer maturities for Greek debt. But politicslimit her room for manoeuvre. One change is the rise of the new anti-euro Alternative forGermany. It did well in state elections last year but is now riven by squabbles. Any softness onGreece will feed its support in Hamburg's election in February. Public opinion remains sceptical.The tabloid Bild says that, if Greece can't play by the rules,Germany should show it the “redcard”.